HENNESSY GIVES ANALYSIS ON ELECTION BRIGHT SPOT FOR NATIONAL DEMOCRATS

Jahana Hayes beats George Logan in tight battle in 5th District; Democrats sweep back in other congressional races

Christopher Keating, Alison Cross

Hartford Courant

Originally Published: November 5, 2024 at 8:33 PM EST

U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes won another term over Republican challenger George Logan after  a bitter battle that was initially too close to call early Wednesday morning in one of the nation’s most important Congressional races.

Hayes had refused to declare victory during a speech to supporters at about 11:35 p.m. Tuesday, but said she was “walking in victory” as she held the lead over Logan by 54% to 46% with about 58% of the vote counted.

U.S. Reps. John Larson, Rosa DeLauro, Jim Himes, and Joe Courtney, all Democrats, also won reelection Tuesday night.

“Thank you to all the people of eastern Connecticut for your support – today and over the years. It is the greatest honor of my life to represent you in the U.S. House of Representatives, and I never have, and never will, take it for granted,” Courtney said.

The 5th district’s high-stakes contest was targeted by both the national Democratic and Republican parties because it will help determine the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and the next Speaker. Hayes defeated Logan two years ago by less than one percentage point, prompting the parties to focus on the rematch in a multimillion-dollar race. The contest attracted attention from the union-backed Working Families Party on the left to the conservative Koch Brothers network on the right.

At around 11:30 p.m., Hayes walked into the ballroom to the Alicia Key’s song “Girl on Fire,” smiling as she hugged her supporters and friends in the crowd.

“You guys realize they haven’t called it yet, right?” Hayes laughed.

“We have faith!” one woman in the crowd yelled.

In her watch party speech, Hayes said she was waiting for the Associated Press to officially call the race, but she said “the numbers look good.” AP later called it for Hayes.

Hayes thanked her campaign team and her husband, who appeared in campaign television commercials with her.

U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes gets a hug from London Carter-Williams of Waterbury, at the Courtyard Waterbury as she waits for election results to come in on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (Aaron Flaum/ Hartford Courant)

U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes gets a hug from London Carter-Williams of Waterbury, at the Courtyard Waterbury as she waits for election results to come in on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (Aaron Flaum/ Hartford Courant)

“It is really hard for a man to stand by and watch people try to scandalize his wife’s name, try to attack my character over and over and over again,” Hayes said. “But one of the things I know for sure is that I know who I am, and I know who I was before I went to Congress, and I am still that person, and nothing that anyone says or does can take that away from me.”

Hayes continued, “For me, this is the most humbling part. The numbers show already that I have built up enough credibility amongst the voters in this district that they’re not just going to accept anything. People are going to give me the benefit of the doubt … and that’s what we saw today. Thank you again for being here. … But I have a feeling that when this is called, you will all be very pleased with the outcome. It is the reflection, evidence of answered prayers. It is evidence of all of your hard work. It is evidence of your faith and trust in me.”

Hayes added, “It is evidence that we have work left to do and that you will trust me to do that work. So I am not declaring victory, but I can tell you unequivocally that I know that I am walking in victory. I knew that before today. … I’m sorry that we have to wait once again. It’s going to be a long night. We already knew that. … I believe God. I trust that this is already written. I trust that it is already done. I trust that our work is not in vain.”

Previously, at about 10 p.m., a lively crowd of Hayes supporters gathered at the Courtyard Waterbury Downtown Marriott took a pause from the dance floor and started cheering as early results from WFSB, Channel 3, showing Hayes in the lead flashed on a large television screen. Although results were only trickling in, Democrats remained confident and did not seem concerned.

The long campaign fight went down to the end. Hayes continued her television advertising blitz as she had outraised Logan by about $1.3 million and had about $700,000 more in cash on hand as of the latest public filings in mid-October. She remained a constant presence on television screens until Election Day.

Even as voters were heading to the polls Tuesday afternoon, Logan was still seeking money in a fundraising email to his supporters that showed a cover photo from Rolling Stone magazine in January 2019 picturing Hayes with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Ilhan Omar, and firebrand Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, known as AOC.

“Remember this Rolling Stone cover?” Logan wrote. “My opponent is on the far left – literally and figuratively. Jahana Hayes is a member of the socialist Squad. It should come as no surprise that these are her closest allies; she stands in lockstep with their far-left agenda and has voted with the failed Biden-Harris Administration 99% of the time.”

Since Logan’s race was so close in 2022, Republicans said they had the best chance of winning the 5th District seat since popular Goshen Republican Andrew Roraback lost narrowly 12 years ago.

But Democrats responded by bringing coordinated firepower in a district where Democrats defeated Republican Donald J. Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Democrats said they had an advantage with Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy generating huge turnout at the top of the ticket in a district where Democrats have won every two years since Murphy pulled off an upset over longtime Republican Nancy Johnson in 2006.

“A presidential year where Trump’s on the ballot?” asked longtime Hartford Democratic political operative Matthew J. Hennessy, who predicted a Hayes victory for months. “She’s going to win by pure gravity. She is the candidate who has received the most institutional support.”

The Associated Press called the race in Connecticut for Harris soon after the polls closed at 8 p.m., extending a streak of Democratic victories in presidential races that started with Bill Clinton in 1992. In addition, Murphy – a huge Hayes supporter who encouraged her to run in 2018 – won big in his race for a third term in the U.S. Senate.

But the close Hayes-Logan race continued later into the night.

At the Courtyard Waterbury off Interstate 84 in Waterbury, the grand ballroom was bathed in blue light for Hayes’ watch party. White and blue balloons accented the walls as a DJ played music and campaign volunteers buzzed about the room. On either side of the main stage, flanked by the Stars and Stripes and Connecticut state flag, projectors relayed early election results from MSNBC and WFSB, Channel 3.

Before the polls closed, Darlene Eason, the event coordinator, said she felt “confident, excited, blessed.”

Eason said she first met Hayes years ago at an after-school program they worked at together.

“To see where she was then as a teacher, to then become teacher of the year and now congresswoman … it’s exciting,” Eason said.

Eason said her 16-year-old daughter, who was also volunteering for the event, “loves Jahana. She’s someone that she looks up to,” Eason said. “We’re proud of her. She’s an inspiration.”

Republicans and others said they did not expect a watch party for Logan.

State Democratic chairwoman Nancy DiNardo said the Hayes race was the top priority statewide for Democrats though the U.S. Senate, all five U.S. House seats, and 187 seats in the state legislature were also on the ballot. As such, Hayes raised $3.8 million for her own campaign, plus more than $1.6 million more from outside groups that opposed Logan and supported Hayes. That included extensive television advertising by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, known as the DCCC, and the House Majority PAC, which criticized Logan on abortion.

The race was marked by high turnout in the sprawling, 41-town district that stretches from Simsbury to Danbury to Salisbury in the state’s Northwest Corner along the New York and Massachusetts borders.

On Logan’s side, one of the biggest supporters was the political network founded by the conservative Koch Brothers, who seek to elect Republican candidates across the country. Americans for Prosperity Action is a name that is unknown to most voters, but it is a national group that was created by the Koch Brothers.

The group mailed at least eight campaign fliers that praised Logan and criticized Hayes to voters in the district. In addition, supporters went door-to-door and left hang tags with pro-Logan campaign literature that said it was paid by Americans for Prosperity Action.

Longtime Waterbury Republican Jeff Santopietro said one of Hayes’s mistakes was remaining in Chicago for the Democratic National Convention instead of returning immediately to the district following major flooding on Aug. 18.

“When you’re a congressman or a mayor, you need to go back to your district,” Santopietro said in an interview. “You need to go back and help any way you possibly can. At a devastating time of need like that, people want their elected officials around. The congressman should have been here, not in Chicago at a party.”

Hayes, however, said she moved quickly to make telephone calls in Chicago in an effort that eventually led to a disaster declaration by President Joe Biden that allowed the Federal Emergency Management Agency, known as FEMA, to begin the process of reimbursements.

Santopietro said he spoke personally to House Speaker Mike Johnson at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee regarding the race.

“He likes George an awful lot,” Santopietro said. “He thinks the world of George. I talked to the Speaker about George. It was the first night we were there. … It’s time for a change.”

“George, this kid never stopped campaigning,” Santopietro said. “He amazed me and I’ve been around a lot. He’s been like a machine.”

An advantage for Hayes was that she had two lines on the ballot: the Democratic Party and the union-backed Working Families Party.

Sarah Ganong, state director of the Connecticut Working Families Party, sent an Election Day memo that analyzed the contests and said the Hayes race is “one of the most important defensive races in the country.” Hayes, she said, won two years ago by the margin of votes that came from the Working Families line.

“As we did two years ago, WFP has been heavily involved in this campaign, supporting the campaign with a best-in-class relational postcard program and substantial voter contact through canvasses, phonebanks, events, texting messaging, and early voting support around the district,” she said. “The race remains close, with Hayes facing recurring MAGA candidate George Logan back for another round. Rep. Hayes has stood up for working people when it matters most, from fighting for affordable prescription drug prices to defending the rights of unions on the floor of the U.S. House.”

Emerson Polling

A poll by Emerson College, The Hill, and WTNH, Channel 8 generated controversy by reporting that Hayes was ahead of Logan by only three percentage points in the district. Democrats have dismissed the poll as inaccurate, while Republicans said it was correct because voters are frustrated by high grocery prices and too much federal spending.

Hayes responded by saying she had seen at least five internal polls that showed she was ahead of Logan by more than the margin shown by the Emerson Poll. As such, she said it made sense for the Congressional Leadership Fund, run by Republicans, to pull back $600,000 on the TV ad buy that was a political blow to Logan.

“If Mike Johnson’s polling showed it was a dead heat, they wouldn’t be pulling up stakes and moving somewhere else,” Hayes told The Courant. “That’s pretty basic. Anyone who ever ran a campaign or worked on a campaign, that’s pretty basic.”

Lt. Governor Susan Bysiewicz, left, U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes and U.S. Senator Chris Murphy share a laugh during a campaign stop at the Israel Putnam School in Meriden during election day on Tuesday. Murphy encouraged Hayes to run in 2018 and has been a major supporter. (Aaron Flaum/ Hartford Courant)

Lt. Governor Susan Bysiewicz, left, U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes, and U.S. Senator Chris Murphy share a laugh during a campaign stop at the Israel Putnam School in Meriden on election day.  Murphy encouraged Hayes to run in 2018 and has been a major supporter. (Aaron Flaum/ Hartford Courant)

Christopher Keating can be reached at ckeating@courant.com

Tremont Director Hennessy on Senator Lieberman's Legacy

The legacy of CT’s Joe Lieberman always included his time in New Haven

Christopher Keating

Hartford Courant

March 30, 2024

Former U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman is being remembered as a national figure who always returned home to his roots in Connecticut.

A Stamford native who moved to New Haven, Lieberman developed numerous political and personal friendships through a long career that he said included 15 campaigns in Connecticut.

He is best known for his winning campaigns and serving 24 years in the U.S. Senate as he became a national figure who was the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000. But he also lost numerous times, including being defeated by Bill O’Neill for lieutenant governor at the Democratic state convention in 1978 and then by Republican Larry DeNardis in a race for Congress in the New Haven area during Ronald Reagan’s landslide in 1980.

But Lieberman, who died Wednesday following a fall at his New York City apartment, always had another chapter in politics.

“He was always thinking about what the folks back home needed,” said Matthew J. Hennessy, a former member of Lieberman’s U.S. Senate staff who worked on his campaigns for Senate, vice president, and president. “This was a guy who was always keeping his eye on his constituents. He was known as an international figure, but he was constantly coming back to Connecticut.”

In New Haven, Lieberman started building a political base more than 50 years ago with support from Irish, Italian, and Jewish voters.

“He was very attuned to what an urban coalition meant,” Hennessy said.

One of those key Irish supporters was Martin Dunleavy, a longtime union official and political activist who spent more than 20 years on the Democratic National Committee. He said he first met Lieberman when he was 12 years old when Lieberman had graduated from Yale Law School and was serving as the co-chairman of Robert F. Kennedy’s 1968 campaign for president.

Dunleavy lived only about five blocks away from Lieberman in New Haven’s Westville neighborhood.

“He was my state senator,” Dunleavy recalled. “My mom and I volunteered for his campaign against Ed Marcus [in 1970]. His synagogue was across the street from my house.”

As a tradition, Lieberman always showed up at Dunleavy’s house on election day as one of his stops — and that continued in November 2000 when Lieberman returned to New Haven while running for vice president. The problem, though, was Dunleavy was working in Pennsylvania on election day on the Gore-Lieberman campaign and was not home. Instead, his cousin, David, was living in the house at the time and was stunned when he looked out the window.

“It’s Joe Lieberman with the national press corps,” Dunleavy recalled. “He said, ‘David, I wouldn’t feel lucky unless I dropped off these bagels.’ It was a tradition.”

Former state Rep. Stephen Dargan, a West Haven Democrat, said that Lieberman always received major support from “the Irish mob of Westville” that included Dunleavy, Probate Judge Jack Keyes, and attorney Nicholas E. Neeley, among others.

Dargan remembers seeing Lieberman in New Haven on a very busy election day in 2000 as he returned to his hometown to vote at Edgewood School in Westville before heading back out.

“He was getting back on the plane to go to Tennessee to see Gore,” Dargan said.

While he did not live in Westville, longtime state Sen. Martin Looney represented a Senate district that stretched into the neighborhood. He worked for decades on behalf of Lieberman with fellow city residents.

“Vinnie Mauro, Sr. was instrumental in helping Lieberman make a comeback in 1982 for attorney general,” Looney recalled. “Six years later in 1988, Vinnie Mauro, Sr. saw it was a great opportunity to run for statewide office against Weicker. [Lieberman] started off as the underdog.”

Decades later, his son, Vinnie Mauro, Jr., was asked by the Lieberman family to serve as a pallbearer at Lieberman’s funeral in Stamford.

Former U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman died March 27 in New York City. Here, he stands with President George W. Bush and Hillary Rodham Clinton at a reception honoring the 2003 college national champions, which included the UConn women's basketball team.

While he always had support back in Connecticut, Lieberman made a name for himself on the national stage. He was offered jobs on both sides of the aisle.

Despite his voting record with Democrats on core domestic issues like gun control, abortion rights, tax increases, the environment and gay rights, Lieberman also took a series of high-profile positions on national security that won favor with Republicans.

His transformation allowed the former Democratic vice presidential nominee to field secret inquiries for jobs with the Bush administration, Lieberman said. Not long after Bush won his second term over Lieberman’s Yale classmate, John Kerry, Lieberman came close to joining Bush’s administration.

“Should I say this?” Lieberman said aloud during an interview with The Hartford Courant upon his departure from the Senate. “I don’t know if I’ve said it before. I should have saved this for my book.”

“Twice I was asked if I would consider — I was not offered, and that’s very important to say — at the end of the first Bush administration, after he had been reelected [in 2004],” Lieberman said, “I was asked whether I would consider accepting the position of ambassador to the United Nations.”

Lieberman spoke with various top Bush advisers, including chief of staff Andrew Card and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, about the position before he finally decided to remain in the Senate.

Not long after, Lieberman said Card called again, asking him about being homeland security chief on short notice. Would he consider replacing Bernie Kerik of New York, who had run into major controversy in December 2004 after being nominated?

“If you’re asked by a president, when the focus of my life has been public service,” Lieberman said, “you really have to give it the most serious consideration — and I did give the U.N. ambassadorship serious consideration … but ultimately I decided I wanted to continue working in the Senate.”

Former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman was under consideration to be FBI director to succeed the fired James Comey. Here, Lieberman, a No Labels co-chairman, introduces Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to speak at a No Labels convention in 2015 in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Even after leaving Washington, Lieberman was considered by Republican Donald J. Trump for a position as FBI director. Lieberman, who was 75 at the time, was interviewed by Trump at the White House as speculation mounted that he would be nominated for the position to replace the fired James Comey.

“Just being thought of for this position was a great honor because of my enormous respect for the men and women of the FBI and the critical and courageous work they do in protecting the American people from criminals and terrorists, and upholding our finest values,” Lieberman wrote in a letter to Trump.

But Lieberman eventually withdrew his name, saying he wanted to avoid any potential conflict of interest because one of his New York City law firm colleagues represented Trump.

A lifelong Democrat who began his public life as a 1960s anti-war activist, Lieberman had many political twists and turns over a span of 40 years.

His friends say he took a hard right turn after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and his support of Republican George W. Bush’s entrance into the Iraq War led to a challenge from Greenwich anti-war activist Ned Lamont in the 2006 U.S. Senate primary. Lieberman lost the primary as liberal Democrats flocked to Lamont, but Lieberman won the general election with the support of Republicans.

Lieberman went a step further right when he supported Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential race. Some Democrats wanted to strip him of his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee after he backed McCain, but with support from Democratic leader Harry Reid, Lieberman kept his chairmanship.

He eventually decided not to seek reelection in 2012 and stepped away from the Senate in January 2013.

Lieberman worked part time at the bipartisan “No Labels” political movement among his multiple interests, including defense and national security issues. He said he spent about half of his time working at a New York City law firm, “which helps me to be generous to my children and grandchildren.”

Christopher Keating can be reached at ckeating@courant.com

Tremont Director Analyzes Urban Turnout in Historic Mid-Term Election

Despite wins, CT Democrats confront 'big drop off' in city turnout

John Moritz

One area of concern for Connecticut Democrats after sweeping midterm election: turnout in cities

Nov. 11, 2022 9:05 p.m.

Others noted that despite Lamont’s support for policies that are popular with many city residents — such as a $15 minimum wage, and an expanded earned income tax credit — those achievements were not highlighted well enough by the campaign. 

“There didn’t seem to be a specifically targeted approach to get messages about those things to urban voters,” said Matt Hennessy, a Democratic consultant based in Hartford, who added that Republicans “suppressed” turnout in cities with mailers depicting the governor as a racist.

https://www.ctinsider.com/politics/article/CT-Democrats-midterm-turnout-Bridgeport-New-Haven-17577844.php

Will cities deliver again for Lamont?

Dan Haar

Lamont defends urban strongholds against a Stefanowski push

Nov. 3, 2022Updated: Nov. 3, 2022 5:37 a.m.

“Democratic Party activists are asking themselves whether voters will recognize the large investments Lamont has made in cities; whether the ground game is getting that message across, Matthew Hennessy, a public affairs consultant and former city official in Hartford, said this week. 

"For all the struggles that our voters have had in these urban communities, does that filter down? That’s the real question," he said.

As for a prediction: "I think he’s going to do better than he’s done in suburban communities. That may offset any trouble that might emerge in the urban communities."

https://www.ctinsider.com/connecticut/article/Lamont-Stefanowski-cities-New-Haven-Bridgeport-17554488.php

Tremont Director Weighs In On National Democrats' Chances in November

Democrats Have Reason for Hope — but How Much?

The midterms are not looking like a total bloodbath for Democrats, like they were a few weeks ago. The GOP still looks like it will do quite nicely, however.

GOVERNING

Aug. 16, 2022 •

Alan Greenblatt

“That makes it hard for Republicans, especially in suburban districts,” says Matthew Hennessy, a Democratic consultant based in Connecticut. “The issues around abortion, gun control, inflation and gas prices, those all seem to be breaking Biden’s way, and the Democrats’ way.”

Hennessy concedes that about 45 days ago, Democrats looked like they were heading into a world of hurt. The fundamentals that matter most in elections, such as presidential approval ratings and economic indicators, were all pointing down for the party. Consumer sentiment has ticked up a bit, although it remains well below where it was this time last year.

https://www.governing.com/now/democrats-have-reason-for-hope-but-how-much

Tremont Director Discusses Recent Connecticut Poll on NBC

In a new survey, Tremont Public Advisors found that fewer Connecticut residents think the state is heading in the right direction. The survey found 54 percent of people believe Connecticut is on the right track; a decrease from 57 percent in November 2021.

NBC Connecticut’s Dan Corcoran spoke with Matt Hennessy, the Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/growing-number-of-residents-think-conn-is-on-wrong-track-survey/2719599/

MOST CONNECTICUT RESIDENTS SAY STATE HEADED IN RIGHT DIRECTION

TO: Clients of Tremont Public Advisors & Interested Parties

FROM: Matt Hennessy, Managing Director

DATE:  February 11, 2022

RE: Public Opinion Survey of Connecticut Residents on Direction of State

Introduction:

Between 2/7/22 – 2/11/22 Tremont Public Advisors conducted an on-line survey of 1,027 adult Connecticut residents to determine if they believed “things are going generally in the right direction, or are seriously headed on the wrong track in Connecticut”.  Tremont Public Advisors released the results of a survey asking the same question of Connecticut residents in November of 2021. [i]  The results of that survey showed 57% of Connecticut residents felt things were headed in the right direction in Connecticut compared to 43% who felt the state was on the wrong track.

February 2022 Survey Results:

·       The number of residents believing things were headed in the right direction in Connecticut dropped from 57% in November 2021 to 54% in February 2022.

·       The number of residents that felt Connecticut was on the wrong track increased from 43% in November of 2021 to 46% in February 2022.

·       Women were the demographic that showed the greatest decrease from 2021 of those believing Connecticut was heading in the right direction. They went from +16 right direction (58-42) to +10 right direction (55-45) in 2022.

Implications:

The majority of Connecticut residents continue to buck national trends[ii] and believe the state is headed in the “right direction”. This should give businesses and policy makers an indication residents have an optimistic view of Connecticut’s near-term future. That being said, it is worth identifying the key issues likely driving the increase in those concerned the state is headed down the wrong track.

Recent publicly available polling shows the public is focused primarily on the issues of inflation/jobs and the Covid-19 pandemic[iii][iv].The response by policy makers to these issues likely play an important role in whether or not Connecticut residents believe the state is headed on the “wrong track”. However, based on their partisan leanings, residents can come to that conclusion for entirely different reasons[v].

COVID-19

Generally speaking, most voters have been supportive of common-sense safety measures against Covid-19 transmission. During the period around and after our November 2021 survey, Connecticut policy makers had adopted a number (but not all) of the policies/interventions to prevent the worst impacts that, according to recent polling, had considerable public support.

·       Most voters support mandating vaccinations for indoor activities including eating in a restaurant or going to the gym.[vi]

·       Most voters support vaccine mandates in the workplace[vii]

·       Most voters support mask mandates in schools[viii][ix][x][xi]

·       Most voters support the free distribution of Covid tests and masks.[xii]

However, national polling has shown there is a sharp partisan divide. Most Republican voters (89%) agree that it is time to “accept that Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives." Most Democrats (51%) disagree with that statement.[xiii]

Since the Tremont November 2, 2021 survey showing 57% of Connecticut residents believed the state was in the right direction, there have been a number of developments:

·       1,443 Connecticut residents died from Covid between 11/4/21 and 2/10/22.

·       On 1/20/22 Connecticut announced it was ending its vaccine mandate and testing requirements for state employees and teachers[xiv].

·       State officials decided to lift the mask mandate in K-12 schools by the end of February[xv].

·       The Centers for Disease Control reiterated its support of universal K-12 masking in schools.[xvi]

With hospitalizations and Covid infections approximately 153% and 97% higher respectively than early November 2021, it appears that Connecticut policy makers have decided ending testing mandates and K-12 masking requirements are the best way to indicate empathy for the majority of voters who are “frustrated” with the pandemic.[xvii]  It remains to be seen whether these policy choices to lift mandates (which are controversial in their own right)  [xviii] will result in increased numbers of residents who feel Connecticut is headed in the right direction.

INFLATION/JOBS

Inflation and jobs are the other key concern of voters[xix] according to national polling. Inflation and, to a lesser extent job creation, are outside state government control in the short term. However, resident perception of the government response to these issues will inform opinions on whether Connecticut is headed in the right direction.

·       Between December 2020 and December 2021, Connecticut experienced its greatest drop in unemployment since at least 1976.[xx]

·       In 2021, Connecticut’s unemployment rate exceeded that of the U.S. every month.

·       Connecticut’s Labor Force Participation Rate (63.5%) exceeds that of the U.S. (61.9%)[xxi]

·       Inflation has had an uneven impact on Connecticut residents with the cost of gas increasing and the cost of ground beef declining from a year ago.[xxii]

To the extent policy leaders can point to initiatives targeted at job creation and mitigating the impacts of inflation, this may also bring the number down of those who believe the state is on the “wrong track”.

What to watch for:

Connecticut policy makers are generally much better off when most constituents believe that things are headed in the right direction. What might impact that perception over the next couple of months?

·       Spikes in Covid infection and illness in K-12 students – Will residents blame policymakers for ending school mask mandates in contravention of CDC guidance during a period of community spread?

·       Spikes in Covid infections in adults – Does the introduction of a new variant in Connecticut raises concerns with those supportive of previous mandates?

·       Do Covid infections drop to a persistent but manageable number?

·       Does Connecticut’s steady reduction in unemployment finally reach the national average?

·       Does inflation slow, allowing the growth of Connecticut wages to mitigate the impact on the purchase of basic household goods?

It is likely the pandemic and inflation/jobs will continue to be the key issues driving public perception of the well-being of Connecticut for months to come.

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut. You can learn more about our polling here: (https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/11/7/how-accurate-were-the-final-polls-in-the-race-for-ct-governor)

Poll Methodology

Between 02/7/22 and 2/11/22 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,027 Connecticut residents over age 18 who expressed an opinion about the direction of the state using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 2.5%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.                                               

[i] https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2021/11/2/latest-poll-connecticut-residents-say-state-is-on-the-right-track

[ii] https://morningconsult.com/form/right-direction-wrong-track/

[iii] https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-january-2022/

[iv] https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-business-health-elections-bb16c5c52e2bf719ec8a0c5415aaf66c

[v] https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/why-everyone-agrees-america-wrong-track-n1288206

[vi] Q.53 https://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/January-2022-Omnibus-COVID-TOPLINE.pdf

[vii] https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/19/employer-covid-vaccine-mandate-supreme-court-poll/

[viii] https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/heres-what-pa-voters-in-the-f-m-poll-said-about-biden-masks-in-schools/article_a63e9644-3766-11ec-82cc-9bcce6369f6e.html

[ix] https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-mask-vaccine-mandate-schools-poll/2021/09/22/624309fa-1b16-11ec-bcb8-0cb135811007_story.html

[x] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/08/23/majority-of-americans-but-fewer-parents-support-school-mask-mandates-and-vaccine-requirements-poll-finds/?sh=6e730b7238cf

[xi] https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/education/2022/01/27/poll-ri-parents-on-covid-and-schools-urban-suburban-learning-loss/9225714002/

[xii] https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/26/free-n95-masks-covid-rapid-tests-biden-administration/

[xiii] Q.33 Crosstabs https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_013122.pdf/

[xiv] https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/coronavirus/vaccine-mandate-for-state-employees-teachers-can-expire-lamont/2694891/

[xv] https://www.ctinsider.com/news/article/Lamont-Decision-on-school-masks-in-CT-could-be-16822906.php

[xvi] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-cdc-stands-by-k-12-school-masking-guidance-states-relax-rules-walensky-2022-02-08/

[xvii] https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-january-2022/

[xviii] https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-poll-covid-acceptance-but-indecision-211212c1-733e-482f-9f4f-026e9de727bb.html

[xix] https://www.ctinsider.com/business/article/As-inflation-surges-Connecticut-families-16772196.php

[xx] https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/unempratectus.asp

[xxi] https://www.jec.senate.gov/cards/ct/

[xxii] https://www.jec.senate.gov/cards/ct/

LATEST POLL: CONNECTICUT RESIDENTS SAY STATE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK

CONNECTICUT RESIDENTS SAY STATE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK

Survey of 1,352 Connecticut residents shows most believe state is headed in the right direction

11/2/2021

Contact: Tremont Public Advisors 860-200-8503

Hartford – Bucking national trends, a survey of Connecticut residents shows that they believe the state is headed in the right direction. The public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,352 Connecticut residents between 10/28-10/31/21 in which 57% of respondents indicated they believed the state was headed in the right direction as opposed to 43% who felt Connecticut was seriously headed on the wrong track. The results of this survey contrast with recent national polling indicating that most Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction[1][2]. 

“The results of this survey are good news for Connecticut businesses and the leaders of state government. No matter the concerns Connecticut residents may have about the direction of our nation as a whole, they feel fairly optimistic about Connecticut’s future.” stated Matt Hennessy managing director of Tremont Public Advisors. “If residents believe our state is headed in the right direction, they are more likely to have positive expectations of economic growth which is good for businesses. Residents are also more likely to look favorably on the policies by state leaders they believe steered Connecticut on a positive path.”

Survey Results

Q.1

Thinking about recent events in Connecticut, would you say things are going generally in the right direction, or are seriously headed on the wrong track in Connecticut?                                                            

Right Direction                                                           57%    

Wrong Track                                                              43%                            

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut. You can learn more about our polling here: (https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/11/7/how-accurate-were-the-final-polls-in-the-race-for-ct-governor)

About Matthew Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors: Recognized as one of the top political consultants in the United States by Campaigns and Elections Magazine, Matt has served as an adviser to multiple campaigns for federal, state and local office, as well as a range of high-profile corporations and organizations.

Methodology

Between 10/28/21 and 10/31/21 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,352 Connecticut residents over age 18 who expressed an opinion about the direction of the state using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 2.5%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.

[1] Morning Consult Poll 62% “wrong track”  https://morningconsult.com/form/right-direction-wrong-track/

[2] Rasmussen Reports only 29% “right direction” https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/right_direction_wrong_track_nov01

TREMONT PUBLIC ADVISORS JOINS SUPREME COURT BRIEF IN DEFENSE OF THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT

1/22/21

Contact: Tremont Public Advisors 860-200-8503

Hartford – This past Tuesday, Tremont Public Advisors joined 73 businesses and 224 business leaders in filing an Amicus Brief in the United States Supreme Court supporting efforts to prevent the State of Arizona from gutting key provisions of the Voting Rights Act.

The cases, MARK BRNOVICH, ATTORNEY GENERAL OF ARIZONA, ET AL., Petitioners,  v.  DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL., Respondents and  ARIZONA REPUBLICAN PARTY, ET AL., Petitioners,  v.  DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL., involve provisions of Arizona election law which dis-proportionally result in minority voters from casting votes or having their votes properly counted.

As the brief states: “Business leaders have a strong interest in this case given that the strength of America’s economy and markets rests on one of the founding principles of our democracy:  the right to vote.  Just as companies have affirmed their interests in a diverse and inclusive workforce, which has been correlated with better economic performance, a fully representative democracy relies on a  diverse  and  inclusive  voting  population protected by the Voting Rights Act of 1965,…  and  is  vital  to  creating an environment that fosters economic growth and prosperity in the United States.”

“Tremont Public Advisors is proud to join nearly three hundred businesses and business leaders in support of protecting the basic rights of our citizens to vote. Our nation can only reach its full potential if we have a vibrant and inclusive democracy. These last few weeks have shown how important it is to carefully guard the building blocks of our republic from those who would disenfranchise millions of voters to gain political power.” stated Matthew Hennessy Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors.

 You can read the brief here: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-1257/166786/20210120113945519_Nos.%2019-1257bsacVoting%20Rights%20Act%20Amicus%20Brief%20of%20Business%20Leaders.pdf

SURVEY OF ALABAMA RESIDENTS SHOWS JONES MAY STILL HAVE PATH TO VICTORY

High Number of AL Residents Remain Undecided, Tuberville Has Solid Lead Among Decided

 10/8/20

Contact: Tremont Public Advisors 860-200-8503

Results of a survey of 1,624 Alabama residents by the public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors show incumbent Senator Doug Jones may still have a path to victory on Election Day if residents who remain undecided about which Senate candidate “shares their values”[i] break substantially in his direction and vote. The survey showed that Tuberville had a 16-point lead over Jones among decided residents which is consistent with the results of an on-line survey released on 10/5 by Auburn University at Montgomery’s Department of Political Science and Public Administration. However, the Tremont survey results differ in that Tuberville did not reached the 50% threshold of support and a third of residents are unsure if he shares their values.

“Though Tommy Tuberville retains a solid lead, a path to victory remains for Senator Doug Jones by convincing residents, particularly women, that he shares their values and then activating them to vote. If the Jones campaign has the resources to expand the universe of Alabama residents participating in the election, he may have the ability to change the dynamics of the race.” stated Matt Hennessy Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “Further, though Tuberville has benefited from his close association with President Trump, that association may become a liability if a larger portion of Alabama residents become concerned about Trump’s judgement and fitness for office in the next few weeks.”

Between 10/5/20 and 10/8/20 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,624 Alabama residents using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The choices of candidates were shown to respondents in a random order. The poll population consisted of Alabama internet users over age 18 viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%. Respondents were not screened to determine if they were registered/likely voters.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Alabama internet users by gender, age and geography.

The survey was designed, administered and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors LLC, a leading Public Affairs firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut. You can learn more about some of our past polling here: https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/11/7/how-accurate-were-the-final-polls-in-the-race-for-ct-governor

Survey Question:

Alabama residents were asked the following:

Thinking about your choices this November 3rd in Alabama: Based on recent news stories and advertisements in Alabama, who do you think most shares your values?

Tommy Tuberville (R)                     42%

Senator Doug Jones (D)                 26%

Don't Know/Undecided [ii]            32%

[i]  “Shared Values” is used in this survey as a proxy for candidate support. Values and Votes: The Indirect Effect of Personal Values on Voting Behavior https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1662-6370.2011.02009.x

[ii] A small number of respondents used the survey option to write in other choices which included Coach Nick Saban.

Tremont Director Signs on to Leadership Now Project Business for Racial Equity Pledge

Our hearts are heavy with the events of the past weeks. 

As citizens, we applaud and stand in solidarity with all Americans exercising their civil liberties and risking their lives and livelihoods for a more just and inclusive nation.  We know that our democracy will never be strong until we fully acknowledge and address America’s history of racism. 

As business people, we see a great need—and opportunity—for the business community to mobilize on issues of economic, social, and racial justice in new, innovative and evidence-based ways. 

We have seen heartfelt expressions of anguish and disgust from chief executives across Wall Street and corporate America. They acknowledge the senseless loss of life we have witnessed in recent weeks, not from the Covid-19 pandemic, but from this nation’s other deadly infectious disease: racism. 

We applaud these statements, and do not doubt their sincerity. But virtuous condemnations of racism and broad commitments to diversity and inclusion rarely translate into tangible, measurable, anti-racist action. 

Real change will require determined leadership from the business community. 

To that end, the co-authors of this letter, whose members represent the highest levels of management at dozens of U.S-based companies contributing billions of dollars to the nation’s GDP, have devised a list of concrete actions that companies can take now to begin to dismantle three of the biggest levers of racist power in this country: biased policing, electoral disenfranchisement, and economic exclusion.

Policing

The roots of American policing did not evolve around the promotion of public health and safety, but the protection of business and economic interests, and enforcement of the social order. 

The fact that Dylan Roof, a white supremacist and mass murderer of eight black churchgoers, can be taken peacefully into police custody, while Eric Garner and George Floyd lost their lives for allegedly selling loose cigarettes and using a counterfeit $20 bill at a convenience store, speaks to vestiges of norms and culture forged during slavery and Jim Crow. It is a system that too often devalues, criminalizes, threatens and, at its worst, ends innocent black lives. 

We simply cannot allow another generation of black children to grow up in a nation where law enforcement can kill with near impunity. 

We pledge to champion and drive meaningful progress across these actions:

• Financially support data-informed police reform. Our members are making donations to the Center for Policing Equity, The Policing Project, and the Police Use of Force Project, three organizations with superb data and evidence-based approaches to racially-just policing. 

• Compel mayors and city legislators to make police reform a priority in cities where you have a significant presence. This public safety advocacy toolkit from the Obama Foundation offers an excellent place to get started.

• Re-evaluate your company’s political donations. Scrutinize your company’s political donations to ensure the candidates and other political entities you support are not inadvertently (or intentionally) preventing progress on policing reform initiatives.

Civic Participation & Safe Ballot Access 

Voter suppression is another form of systemic racism. We must take a stand to ensure ballot-box access to communities of color and to protect their right to vote. 

We pledge to champion and drive meaningful progress across these actions: 

• Donate to organizations that protect voter rights, for example the NAACP and Black Voters Matter, that work specifically within the black community. 

• Publicly advocate for action at the state and local level, including access to early voting, vote-by-mail, and other efforts to ensure that your employees of all backgrounds can vote easily and safely, particularly amidst the ongoing Covid-19 public health crisis.    

Economic Inclusion

Racism is a blight not only on the prospects of individuals and communities, but on the American economy as a whole. And the massive job losses caused by the current pandemic have hit Black communities especially hard. The economy we rebuild post-Covid must be an inclusive one. 

We pledge to champion and drive meaningful progress across these actions: 

• Develop anti-racist workplace initiatives and track their progress. At a minimum, every organization should commit to inclusive hiring and retention practices; living wages and pay equity; board and supplier diversity; and anti-racist training for staff, especially frontline employees. 

• Establish talent sourcing partnerships with job training programs serving black communities. Work with established nonprofits successfully reskilling and upskilling workers in minority communities for in-demand jobs. 

• Direct more investment capital to black entrepreneurs, black-owned small businesses, and black fund managers. 

These are just a few strands of a much broader and complex set of institutional challenges. A truly just and inclusive society will require innovative and equitable solutions to so much more: education, healthcare, and housing, to name a few. 

But the initiatives above are an important start. 

Signed,

The membership of the Leadership Now Project

Leadership Now Project was founded by Harvard Business School alumni in 2017. Several black executive and Leadership Now members led this effort, including Craig Robinson, Lisa Lewin, and Tamer Mokhtar, and welcome partnership and engagement in this initiative.