MOST CONNECTICUT RESIDENTS SAY STATE HEADED IN RIGHT DIRECTION

TO: Clients of Tremont Public Advisors & Interested Parties

FROM: Matt Hennessy, Managing Director

DATE: February 11, 2022

RE: Public Opinion Survey of Connecticut Residents on Direction of State

Introduction:

Between 2/7/22 – 2/11/22 Tremont Public Advisors conducted an on-line survey of 1,027 adult Connecticut residents to determine if they believed “things are going generally in the right direction, or are seriously headed on the wrong track in Connecticut”. Tremont Public Advisors released the results of a survey asking the same question of Connecticut residents in November of 2021. [i] The results of that survey showed 57% of Connecticut residents felt things were headed in the right direction in Connecticut compared to 43% who felt the state was on the wrong track.

February 2022 Survey Results:

· The number of residents believing things were headed in the right direction in Connecticut dropped from 57% in November 2021 to 54% in February 2022.

· The number of residents that felt Connecticut was on the wrong track increased from 43% in November of 2021 to 46% in February 2022.

· Women were the demographic that showed the greatest decrease from 2021 of those believing Connecticut was heading in the right direction. They went from +16 right direction (58-42) to +10 right direction (55-45) in 2022.

Implications:

The majority of Connecticut residents continue to buck national trends[ii] and believe the state is headed in the “right direction”. This should give businesses and policy makers an indication residents have an optimistic view of Connecticut’s near-term future. That being said, it is worth identifying the key issues likely driving the increase in those concerned the state is headed down the wrong track.

Recent publicly available polling shows the public is focused primarily on the issues of inflation/jobs and the Covid-19 pandemic[iii][iv].The response by policy makers to these issues likely play an important role in whether or not Connecticut residents believe the state is headed on the “wrong track”. However, based on their partisan leanings, residents can come to that conclusion for entirely different reasons[v].

COVID-19

Generally speaking, most voters have been supportive of common-sense safety measures against Covid-19 transmission. During the period around and after our November 2021 survey, Connecticut policy makers had adopted a number (but not all) of the policies/interventions to prevent the worst impacts that, according to recent polling, had considerable public support.

· Most voters support mandating vaccinations for indoor activities including eating in a restaurant or going to the gym.[vi]

· Most voters support vaccine mandates in the workplace[vii]

· Most voters support mask mandates in schools[viii][ix][x][xi]

· Most voters support the free distribution of Covid tests and masks.[xii]

However, national polling has shown there is a sharp partisan divide. Most Republican voters (89%) agree that it is time to “accept that Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives." Most Democrats (51%) disagree with that statement.[xiii]

Since the Tremont November 2, 2021 survey showing 57% of Connecticut residents believed the state was in the right direction, there have been a number of developments:

· 1,443 Connecticut residents died from Covid between 11/4/21 and 2/10/22.

· On 1/20/22 Connecticut announced it was ending its vaccine mandate and testing requirements for state employees and teachers[xiv].

· State officials decided to lift the mask mandate in K-12 schools by the end of February[xv].

· The Centers for Disease Control reiterated its support of universal K-12 masking in schools.[xvi]

With hospitalizations and Covid infections approximately 153% and 97% higher respectively than early November 2021, it appears that Connecticut policy makers have decided ending testing mandates and K-12 masking requirements are the best way to indicate empathy for the majority of voters who are “frustrated” with the pandemic.[xvii] It remains to be seen whether these policy choices to lift mandates (which are controversial in their own right) [xviii] will result in increased numbers of residents who feel Connecticut is headed in the right direction.

INFLATION/JOBS

Inflation and jobs are the other key concern of voters[xix] according to national polling. Inflation and, to a lesser extent job creation, are outside state government control in the short term. However, resident perception of the government response to these issues will inform opinions on whether Connecticut is headed in the right direction.

· Between December 2020 and December 2021, Connecticut experienced its greatest drop in unemployment since at least 1976.[xx]

· In 2021, Connecticut’s unemployment rate exceeded that of the U.S. every month.

· Connecticut’s Labor Force Participation Rate (63.5%) exceeds that of the U.S. (61.9%)[xxi]

· Inflation has had an uneven impact on Connecticut residents with the cost of gas increasing and the cost of ground beef declining from a year ago.[xxii]

To the extent policy leaders can point to initiatives targeted at job creation and mitigating the impacts of inflation, this may also bring the number down of those who believe the state is on the “wrong track”.

What to watch for:

Connecticut policy makers are generally much better off when most constituents believe that things are headed in the right direction. What might impact that perception over the next couple of months?

· Spikes in Covid infection and illness in K-12 students – Will residents blame policymakers for ending school mask mandates in contravention of CDC guidance during a period of community spread?

· Spikes in Covid infections in adults – Does the introduction of a new variant in Connecticut raises concerns with those supportive of previous mandates?

· Do Covid infections drop to a persistent but manageable number?

· Does Connecticut’s steady reduction in unemployment finally reach the national average?

· Does inflation slow, allowing the growth of Connecticut wages to mitigate the impact on the purchase of basic household goods?

It is likely the pandemic and inflation/jobs will continue to be the key issues driving public perception of the well-being of Connecticut for months to come.

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut. You can learn more about our polling here: (https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/11/7/how-accurate-were-the-final-polls-in-the-race-for-ct-governor)

Poll Methodology

Between 02/7/22 and 2/11/22 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,027 Connecticut residents over age 18 who expressed an opinion about the direction of the state using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 2.5%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.

[i] https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2021/11/2/latest-poll-connecticut-residents-say-state-is-on-the-right-track

[ii] https://morningconsult.com/form/right-direction-wrong-track/

[iii] https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-january-2022/

[iv] https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-business-health-elections-bb16c5c52e2bf719ec8a0c5415aaf66c

[v] https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/why-everyone-agrees-america-wrong-track-n1288206

[vi] Q.53 https://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/January-2022-Omnibus-COVID-TOPLINE.pdf

[vii] https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/19/employer-covid-vaccine-mandate-supreme-court-poll/

[viii] https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/heres-what-pa-voters-in-the-f-m-poll-said-about-biden-masks-in-schools/article_a63e9644-3766-11ec-82cc-9bcce6369f6e.html

[ix] https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-mask-vaccine-mandate-schools-poll/2021/09/22/624309fa-1b16-11ec-bcb8-0cb135811007_story.html

[x] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/08/23/majority-of-americans-but-fewer-parents-support-school-mask-mandates-and-vaccine-requirements-poll-finds/?sh=6e730b7238cf

[xi] https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/education/2022/01/27/poll-ri-parents-on-covid-and-schools-urban-suburban-learning-loss/9225714002/