High Number of AL Residents Remain Undecided, Tuberville Has Solid Lead Among Decided
10/8/20
Contact: Tremont Public Advisors 860-200-8503
Results of a survey of 1,624 Alabama residents by the public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors show incumbent Senator Doug Jones may still have a path to victory on Election Day if residents who remain undecided about which Senate candidate “shares their values”[i] break substantially in his direction and vote. The survey showed that Tuberville had a 16-point lead over Jones among decided residents which is consistent with the results of an on-line survey released on 10/5 by Auburn University at Montgomery’s Department of Political Science and Public Administration. However, the Tremont survey results differ in that Tuberville did not reached the 50% threshold of support and a third of residents are unsure if he shares their values.
“Though Tommy Tuberville retains a solid lead, a path to victory remains for Senator Doug Jones by convincing residents, particularly women, that he shares their values and then activating them to vote. If the Jones campaign has the resources to expand the universe of Alabama residents participating in the election, he may have the ability to change the dynamics of the race.” stated Matt Hennessy Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “Further, though Tuberville has benefited from his close association with President Trump, that association may become a liability if a larger portion of Alabama residents become concerned about Trump’s judgement and fitness for office in the next few weeks.”
Between 10/5/20 and 10/8/20 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,624 Alabama residents using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The choices of candidates were shown to respondents in a random order. The poll population consisted of Alabama internet users over age 18 viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%. Respondents were not screened to determine if they were registered/likely voters.
Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Alabama internet users by gender, age and geography.
The survey was designed, administered and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors LLC, a leading Public Affairs firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut. You can learn more about some of our past polling here: https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/11/7/how-accurate-were-the-final-polls-in-the-race-for-ct-governor
Survey Question:
Alabama residents were asked the following:
Thinking about your choices this November 3rd in Alabama: Based on recent news stories and advertisements in Alabama, who do you think most shares your values?
Tommy Tuberville (R) 42%
Senator Doug Jones (D) 26%
Don't Know/Undecided [ii] 32%
[i] “Shared Values” is used in this survey as a proxy for candidate support. Values and Votes: The Indirect Effect of Personal Values on Voting Behavior https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1662-6370.2011.02009.x
[ii] A small number of respondents used the survey option to write in other choices which included Coach Nick Saban.